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Wednesday, March 29, 2023

Building a First-Round Leader Card in Search of a Massive Payout

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Some of the best sports betting thrills come from first-round leading wagers. Nothing compares to pleading with your 100/1 longshot to maintain his one-shot lead late on a Thursday afternoon as the top players in the world close up on him.

The 2022 Open Championship is the ideal location to get started if you’ve never explored the fascinating world of FRLs. Therefore, let’s examine how to construct a first-round leader card and attempt to win a significant reward on Thursday at St. Andrews.

How to create a leader card for the first round

Louis Oosthuizen plays a shot from the 18th tee during the Celebration of Champions prior to The 150th Open at St. Andrews Old Course | Stuart Franklin/R&A/R&A via Getty Images

Adapt your pricing

Similar to outright wagers, you don’t want to overstuff your portfolio with favorites when placing first-round leading bets. Rory McIlroy, Xander Schauffele, and other top-tier players will only reduce your potential profit, so if you’re going to go big-name hunting at the top of the odds board, it’s a good idea to mix in a few longshots.

Aim for unstable bird machines

Normally, I only place outright wagers on golfers who have a track record of success on the PGA Tour. But in the realm of FRL, things are very different.

Even if they lack the strength to defeat a stacked field over the course of four rounds, hundreds of players in any particular event are capable of catching fire and shooting the round of the day. FRL wagering is an excellent approach to focus on these expensive players without losing money on a long shot outright.

For my part, I like going for erratic players who can hit the irons or the putter like a freight train. My preferred statistic to aim for in that context is the proportion of birdies or greater.

Let’s go on to our Open Championship FRL card with that in mind.

card for the 2022 Open Championship’s first round of leaders

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Mr. Scottie Scheffler 33/1 1 unit will yield 25 units.

This season, Scheffler has the third-highest percentage of birdies on the Tour, and in 21 starts, he has had 12 rounds in the 60s on Thursday.

40/1 1 unit to net 32 units for Cameron Smith

Smith has spent the whole year being a Thursday terminator. This season, he is second in the field for birdies or greater % and sixth overall in first-round scoring average.

Robert Johnson 42 units at 50/1 after 1 unit

Due to the LIV Golf controversy, few bettors will want to touch Johnson, but when things are going well, nobody can touch him. I believe DJ is worth a chance since, in 2015, he also led the first round at St. Andrews.

Oosthuizen, Louis 55/1: 1 unit will bring in 47 units.

In his two Open Championship appearances at St. Andrews, Oosthuizen has a victory and a T2. I’ll stop here.

Sungjae Im 66/1 to net 58 units after one unit.

Im is the top player on the Tour this season at avoiding bogeys in addition to being a competent birdie maker.

Haotong Li 90/1 to net 82 units after one unit.

Li started the week with a 62 and went on to win the BMW International Open the previous month. He also had the lead after 36 holes in the 2020 PGA Championship, demonstrating his ability to finish low in majors.

J.T. Poston 90/1 to net 82 units with one unit.

Poston had a pair of 62s in each of his past two opening rounds. Let’s ride whatever it is that’s working right now for the Postman.

125/1 Mackenzie Hughes nets 117 units after one unit.

Despite not being a very good ball striker, Hughes may not miss for the whole round on Thursday if he sees a couple 20-footers fall early.

Sepp Straka 200/1 to net 192 units after one unit.

When he gets hot, a bomber who can push it to the green on these par-4 holes can putt the lights out. At 200/1? Sure.

Don’t wager your usual amount on them; for instance, if you wager $5 on all nine FRL bets, you might earn anywhere from $125 to $960 if one of them wins.

Let’s have a winner to kick off The Open!

All betting odds are current as of 7/13 thanks to Oddschecker.

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Related Article: 3 Big-Money Sleepers to Target at St. Andrews for the 2022 Open Championship

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