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Wednesday, March 29, 2023

Signing Mitchell Trubisky Tanked the Pittsburgh Steelers Super Bowl Odds

The NFL is at a turning point. The league’s first-ever Super Bowl featuring two African American quarterbacks, Matt Ryan and Colin Kaepernick, continues to be the most talked about event in football this season. Still one of the greatest stories of all time as it pertains to sports betting has been how much money bettors have lost when their favorite team was unable to sign Mitchell Trubisky before free agency began on March 14th.,

The “mitchell trubisky trade” is a move that has been highly criticized. The Chicago Bears traded Mitchell Trubisky to the San Francisco 49ers for a 2nd round pick and a 3rd round pick. This will have an effect on the Pittsburgh Steelers Super Bowl odds.

While the quarterback carousel spins at dizzying speed in the NFL, the Pittsburgh Steelers have found their guy. In 2022, the squad signed Buffalo Bills backup quarterback Mitchell Trubisky to be its starting quarterback. While many Steelers supporters hailed the idea, Las Vegas oddsmakers aren’t so enthusiastic. The addition of Trubisky significantly reduced Pittsburgh’s chances of reaching the Super Bowl.

Mitchell Trubisky will take over for Ben Roethlisberger as the quarterback for the Pittsburgh Steelers.

(L-R) Pittsburgh Steelers head coach Mike Tomlin stands with the Lombardi Trophy in 2011; former Buffalo Bills backup QB Mitchell Trubisky warms up in 2021. The Steelers signing the QB dropped the team's Super Bowl odds.

(L-R) Pittsburgh Steelers head coach Mike Tomlin stands with the Lombardi Trophy in 2011; former Buffalo Bills backup QB Mitchell Trubisky warms up in 2021. The Steelers signing the QB dropped the team's Super Bowl odds. Mitchell Trubisky and Mike Tomlin (L-R) | TIMOTHY A. CLARY/AFP via Getty Images; Timothy T Ludwig/Getty Images

Mitchell Trubisky was a starter for the North Carolina Tar Heels for one season. He passed for 3,748 yards and a 68.0 percent completion percentage as a junior. In addition, he has 30 touchdowns and just six interceptions. Trubisky also ran for 308 yards and five touchdowns on the ground.

These numbers, along with a good pre-draft performance that highlighted his arm strength and agility, prompted the Chicago Bears to move up one spot to No. 2 overall in the 2017 NFL Draft to choose the Ohio native.

Trubisky’s career was harmed before it even started because he lacked starting experience and the Bears made the mistake of trading up one place to pick him.

The fact that Patrick Mahomes and Deshaun Watson were selected nine and eleven choices later, respectively, harmed his image as time went forward.

Trubisky performed well in Chicago. During his four years there, he had a 29-21 record, 10,609 yards, a 64% completion percentage, 64 touchdowns, and 37 interceptions. He was also named to the Pro Bowl and guided the Bears to the playoffs.

The Pittsburgh Steelers were back in the quarterback market for the first time in over two decades after a 2021 season that saw (possibly future Hall of Fame QB) Ben Roethlisberger finish his spectacular 18-year career.

Then Green Bay Packers quarterback Aaron Rodgers, a Pittsburgh fan, elected to remain with the team. Russell Wilson was traded by the Seattle Seahawks to the Denver Broncos. Carson Wentz was traded from the Indianapolis Colts to the Washington Commanders.

Although Jimmy Garoppolo and Deshaun Watson are still available, Pittsburgh chose Trubisky to fill the position of quarterback. Last season, the former Bear spent time in Buffalo as a backup to Josh Allen, attempting to repair his soiled reputation.

While it seems that the Steelers are making the right decision by taking a risk on a highly-drafted player, Las Vegas thinks otherwise.

After acquiring Trubisky, the Steelers’ chances of winning the Super Bowl plummeted substantially.

The Pittsburgh Steelers only had Mason Rudolph and Dwayne Haskins on the roster before adding Mitchell Trubisky to a two-year, $14.2 million contract. Both of these quarterbacks have previously had opportunities to start in the NFL. Neither of them had a good time.

Despite not having a genuine starting quarterback, the Steelers had +5500 chances of winning the Super Bowl at the end of the 2022 season on FanDuel. That isn’t an endorsement of Rudolph or Haskins. Rather, it’s a hint to the prospect of the team bringing in a great quarterback. This is how Vegas oddsmakers will constantly aim to reduce risk.

Vegas responded to the reality of the situation when the Steelers selected a quarterback for next season, and that fact should make Steelers supporters anxious.

After the Trubisky trade, the Steelers’ Super Bowl odds plummeted from +5500 to +7000.

These Super Bowl odds are now tied for eighth worst in the NFL with the Jacksonville Jaguars.

It’s not ideal when a significant offseason personnel move pushes your Super Bowl chances into Jaguars territory, particularly when other quarterbacks are pushing their teams in the other way.

The turnover of quarterbacks is hurting Super Bowl chances.

As Pat McAfee recently revealed on the Pat McAfee Show, most of the significant quarterback news from the 2022 free-agent period either increased or maintained a team’s chances.

Trading Carson Wentz kept things largely the same for McAfee’s previous club, the Indianapolis Colts. Before and after the transaction, the Colts were at +6000. It’s since soared to +2800 on reports that Baker Mayfield is considering a move to the West.

The Tampa Bay Buccaneers’ fortunes changed dramatically as a result of news such as Tom Brady’s decision not to retire. The Bucs were +2800 the day before the comeback was revealed. Following the announcement, that figure dropped to +750.

Other quarterback news-related odds include the Green Bay Packers staying as the third favorite at +850 with Aaron Rodgers, the Denver Broncos jumping up to +1500 after acquiring Russell Wilson and his old team, and the Seattle Seahawks falling to +8000, the fourth-worst odds in the league, after acquiring Russell Wilson and his old team.

Whether you’re a gambler or not, following the Super Bowl odds and seeing how they effect NFL teams is an interesting way to learn how Vegas experts perceive what teams do throughout the summer.

Pro Football Reference provided all numbers, while Spotrac provided contract statistics.

Former NFL lineman Ross Tucker reveals Ben Roethlisberger didn’t work hard as a young quarterback: ‘He got by playing street ball.’

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